Source code for skfolio.optimization.convex._mean_risk

"""Mean Risk Optimization estimator."""

# Copyright (c) 2023
# Author: Hugo Delatte <delatte.hugo@gmail.com>
# License: BSD 3 clause
# The optimization features are derived
# from Riskfolio-Lib, Copyright (c) 2020-2023, Dany Cajas, Licensed under BSD 3 clause.

import cvxpy as cp
import numpy as np
import numpy.typing as npt
import pandas as pd
import sklearn as sk
import sklearn.utils.metadata_routing as skm

import skfolio.typing as skt
from skfolio.measures import RiskMeasure
from skfolio.optimization.convex._base import ConvexOptimization, ObjectiveFunction
from skfolio.prior import BasePrior, EmpiricalPrior
from skfolio.uncertainty_set import BaseCovarianceUncertaintySet, BaseMuUncertaintySet
from skfolio.utils.tools import args_names, check_estimator

# noinspection PyUnresolvedReferences
_NON_ANNUALIZED_RISK_MEASURES = [rm for rm in RiskMeasure if not rm.is_annualized]


[docs] class MeanRisk(ConvexOptimization): r"""Mean-Risk Optimization estimator. The below 4 objective functions can be optimized: * Minimize Risk: .. math:: \begin{cases} \begin{aligned} &\min_{w} & & risk_{i}(w) \\ &\text{s.t.} & & w^T \cdot \mu \ge min\_return \\ & & & A \cdot w \ge b \\ & & & risk_{j}(w) \le max\_risk_{j} \quad \forall \; j \ne i \end{aligned} \end{cases} * Maximize Expected Return: .. math:: \begin{cases} \begin{aligned} &\max_{w} & & w^T \cdot \mu \\ &\text{s.t.} & & risk_{i}(w) \le max\_risk_{i} \\ & & & A \cdot w \ge b \\ & & & risk_{j}(w) \le max\_risk_{j} \quad \forall \; j \ne i \end{aligned} \end{cases} * Maximize Utility: .. math:: \begin{cases} \begin{aligned} &\max_{w} & & w^T \cdot \mu - \lambda \times risk_{i}(w)\\ &\text{s.t.} & & risk_{i}(w) \le max\_risk_{i} \\ & & & w^T \cdot \mu \ge min\_return \\ & & & A \cdot w \ge b \\ & & & risk_{j}(w) \le max\_risk_{j} \quad \forall \; j \ne i \end{aligned} \end{cases} * Maximize Ratio: .. math:: \begin{cases} \begin{aligned} &\max_{w} & & \frac{w^T \cdot \mu - r_{f}}{risk_{i}(w)}\\ &\text{s.t.} & & risk_{i}(w) \le max\_risk_{i} \\ & & & w^T \cdot \mu \ge min\_return \\ & & & A \cdot w \ge b \\ & & & risk_{j}(w) \le max\_risk_{j} \quad \forall \; j \ne i \end{aligned} \end{cases} With :math:`risk_{i}` a risk measure among: * Mean Absolute Deviation * First Lower Partial Moment * Variance * Semi-Variance * CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) * EVaR (Entropic Value at Risk) * Worst Realization (worst return) * CDaR (Conditional Drawdown at Risk) * Maximum Drawdown * Average Drawdown * EDaR (Entropic Drawdown at Risk) * Ulcer Index * Gini Mean Difference Cost, regularization, uncertainty set, and additional constraints can also be added to the optimization problem (see the parameters description). The assets expected returns, covariance matrix and returns are estimated from the :ref:`prior estimator <prior>`. Parameters ---------- objective_function : ObjectiveFunction, default=ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK :class:`~skfolio.optimization.ObjectiveFunction` of the optimization. Can be any of: * MINIMIZE_RISK * MAXIMIZE_RETURN * MAXIMIZE_UTILITY * MAXIMIZE_RATIO The default is `ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK`. risk_measure : RiskMeasure, default=RiskMeasure.VARIANCE :class:`~skfolio.meta.RiskMeasure` of the optimization. Can be any of: * VARIANCE * SEMI_VARIANCE * STANDARD_DEVIATION * SEMI_DEVIATION * MEAN_ABSOLUTE_DEVIATION * FIRST_LOWER_PARTIAL_MOMENT * CVAR * EVAR * WORST_REALIZATION * CDAR * MAX_DRAWDOWN * AVERAGE_DRAWDOWN * EDAR * ULCER_INDEX * GINI_MEAN_DIFFERENCE_RATIO The default is `RiskMeasure.VARIANCE`. risk_aversion : float, default=1.0 Risk aversion factor :math:`\lambda` of the utility function. Only used for `objective_function=ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_UTILITY`. The default value is `1.0`. prior_estimator : BasePrior, optional :ref:`Prior estimator <prior>`. The prior estimator is used to estimate the :class:`~skfolio.prior.PriorModel` containing the estimation of assets expected returns, covariance matrix, returns and Cholesky decomposition of the covariance. The default (`None`) is to use :class:`~skfolio.prior.EmpiricalPrior`. min_weights : float | dict[str, float] | array-like of shape (n_assets, ) | None, default=0.0 Minimum assets weights (weights lower bounds). If a float is provided, it is applied to each asset. `None` is equivalent to `-np.Inf` (no lower bound). If a dictionary is provided, its (key/value) pair must be the (asset name/asset minium weight) and the input `X` of the `fit` method must be a DataFrame with the assets names in columns. When using a dictionary, assets values that are not provided are assigned a minimum weight of `0.0`. The default value is `0.0` (no short selling). Example: * `min_weights = 0` --> long only portfolio (no short selling). * `min_weights = None` --> no lower bound (same as `-np.Inf`). * `min_weights = -2` --> each weight must be above -200%. * `min_weights = {"SX5E": 0, "SPX": -2}` * `min_weights = [0, -2]` max_weights : float | dict[str, float] | array-like of shape (n_assets, ) | None, default=1.0 Maximum assets weights (weights upper bounds). If a float is provided, it is applied to each asset. `None` is equivalent to `+np.Inf` (no upper bound). If a dictionary is provided, its (key/value) pair must be the (asset name/asset maximum weight) and the input `X` of the `fit` method must be a DataFrame with the assets names in columns. When using a dictionary, assets values that are not provided are assigned a minimum weight of `1.0`. The default value is `1.0` (each asset is below 100%). Example: * `max_weights = 0` --> no long position (short only portfolio). * `max_weights = None` --> no upper bound. * `max_weights = 2` --> each weight must be below 200%. * `max_weights = {"SX5E": 1, "SPX": 2}` * `max_weights = [1, 2]` budget : float | None, default=1.0 Investment budget. It is the sum of long positions and short positions (sum of all weights). `None` means no budget constraints. The default value is `1.0` (fully invested portfolio). Examples: * `budget = 1` --> fully invested portfolio. * `budget = 0` --> market neutral portfolio. * `budget = None` --> no constraints on the sum of weights. min_budget : float, optional Minimum budget. It is the lower bound of the sum of long and short positions (sum of all weights). If provided, you must set `budget=None`. The default (`None`) means no minimum budget constraint. max_budget : float, optional Maximum budget. It is the upper bound of the sum of long and short positions (sum of all weights). If provided, you must set `budget=None`. The default (`None`) means no maximum budget constraint. max_short : float, optional Maximum short position. The short position is defined as the sum of negative weights (in absolute term). The default (`None`) means no maximum short position. max_long : float, optional Maximum long position. The long position is defined as the sum of positive weights. The default (`None`) means no maximum long position. transaction_costs : float | dict[str, float] | array-like of shape (n_assets, ), default=0.0 Transaction costs of the assets. It is used to add linear transaction costs to the optimization problem: .. math:: total\_cost = \sum_{i=1}^{N} c_{i} \times |w_{i} - w\_prev_{i}| with :math:`c_{i}` the transaction cost of asset i, :math:`w_{i}` its weight and :math:`w\_prev_{i}` its previous weight (defined in `previous_weights`). The float :math:`total\_cost` is impacting the portfolio expected return in the optimization: .. math:: expected\_return = \mu^{T} \cdot w - total\_cost with :math:`\mu` the vector af assets' expected returns and :math:`w` the vector of assets weights. If a float is provided, it is applied to each asset. If a dictionary is provided, its (key/value) pair must be the (asset name/asset cost) and the input `X` of the `fit` method must be a DataFrame with the assets names in columns. The default value is `0.0`. .. warning:: Based on the above formula, the periodicity of the transaction costs needs to be homogenous to the periodicity of :math:`\mu`. For example, if the input `X` is composed of **daily** returns, the `transaction_costs` need to be expressed as **daily** costs. (See :ref:`sphx_glr_auto_examples_1_mean_risk_plot_6_transaction_costs.py`) management_fees : float | dict[str, float] | array-like of shape (n_assets, ), default=0.0 Management fees of the assets. It is used to add linear management fees to the optimization problem: .. math:: total\_fee = \sum_{i=1}^{N} f_{i} \times w_{i} with :math:`f_{i}` the management fee of asset i and :math:`w_{i}` its weight. The float :math:`total\_fee` is impacting the portfolio expected return in the optimization: .. math:: expected\_return = \mu^{T} \cdot w - total\_fee with :math:`\mu` the vector af assets expected returns and :math:`w` the vector of assets weights. If a float is provided, it is applied to each asset. If a dictionary is provided, its (key/value) pair must be the (asset name/asset fee) and the input `X` of the `fit` method must be a DataFrame with the assets names in columns. The default value is `0.0`. .. warning:: Based on the above formula, the periodicity of the management fees needs to be homogenous to the periodicity of :math:`\mu`. For example, if the input `X` is composed of **daily** returns, the `management_fees` need to be expressed in **daily** fees. .. note:: Another approach is to directly impact the management fees to the input `X` in order to express the returns net of fees. However, when estimating the :math:`\mu` parameter using for example Shrinkage estimators, this approach would mix a deterministic value with an uncertain one leading to unwanted bias in the management fees. previous_weights : float | dict[str, float] | array-like of shape (n_assets, ), optional Previous weights of the assets. Previous weights are used to compute the portfolio cost and the portfolio turnover. If a float is provided, it is applied to each asset. If a dictionary is provided, its (key/value) pair must be the (asset name/asset previous weight) and the input `X` of the `fit` method must be a DataFrame with the assets names in columns. The default (`None`) means no previous weights. l1_coef : float, default=0.0 L1 regularization coefficient. It is used to penalize the objective function by the L1 norm: .. math:: l1\_coef \times \Vert w \Vert_{1} = l1\_coef \times \sum_{i=1}^{N} |w_{i}| Increasing this coefficient will reduce the number of non-zero weights (cardinality). It tends to increase robustness (out-of-sample stability) but reduces diversification. The default value is `0.0`. l2_coef : float, default=0.0 L2 regularization coefficient. It is used to penalize the objective function by the L2 norm: .. math:: l2\_coef \times \Vert w \Vert_{2}^{2} = l2\_coef \times \sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i}^2 It tends to increase robustness (out-of-sample stability). The default value is `0.0`. mu_uncertainty_set_estimator : BaseMuUncertaintySet, optional :ref:`Mu Uncertainty set estimator <uncertainty_set_estimator>`. If provided, the assets expected returns are modelled with an ellipsoidal uncertainty set. It is called worst-case optimization and is a class of robust optimization. It reduces the instability that arises from the estimation errors of the expected returns. The worst case portfolio expect return is: .. math:: w^T \cdot \hat{\mu} - \kappa_{\mu} \lVert S_{\mu}^\frac{1}{2} \cdot w \rVert_{2} with :math:`\kappa` the size of the ellipsoid (confidence region) and :math:`S` its shape. The default (`None`) means that no uncertainty set is used. covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator : BaseCovarianceUncertaintySet, optional :ref:`Covariance Uncertainty set estimator <uncertainty_set_estimator>`. If provided, the assets covariance matrix is modelled with an ellipsoidal uncertainty set. It is called worst-case optimization and is a class of robust optimization. It reduces the instability that arises from the estimation errors of the covariance matrix. The default (`None`) means that no uncertainty set is used. linear_constraints : array-like of shape (n_constraints,), optional Linear constraints. The linear constraints must match any of following patterns: * "2.5 * ref1 + 0.10 * ref2 + 0.0013 <= 2.5 * ref3" * "ref1 >= 2.9 * ref2" * "ref1 == ref2" * "ref1 >= ref1" With "ref1", "ref2" ... the assets names or the groups names provided in the parameter `groups`. Assets names can be referenced without the need of `groups` if the input `X` of the `fit` method is a DataFrame with these assets names in columns. Examples: * "SPX >= 0.10" --> SPX weight must be greater than 10% (note that you can also use `min_weights`) * "SX5E + TLT >= 0.2" --> the sum of SX5E and TLT weights must be greater than 20% * "US == 0.7" --> the sum of all US weights must be equal to 70% * "Equity == 3 * Bond" --> the sum of all Equity weights must be equal to 3 times the sum of all Bond weights. * "2*SPX + 3*Europe <= Bond + 0.05" --> mixing assets and group constraints groups : dict[str, list[str]] or array-like of shape (n_groups, n_assets), optional The assets groups referenced in `linear_constraints`. If a dictionary is provided, its (key/value) pair must be the (asset name/asset groups) and the input `X` of the `fit` method must be a DataFrame with the assets names in columns. Examples: * groups = {"SX5E": ["Equity", "Europe"], "SPX": ["Equity", "US"], "TLT": ["Bond", "US"]} * groups = [["Equity", "Equity", "Bond"], ["Europe", "US", "US"]] left_inequality : array-like of shape (n_constraints, n_assets), optional Left inequality matrix :math:`A` of the linear constraint :math:`A \cdot w \leq b`. right_inequality : array-like of shape (n_constraints, ), optional Right inequality vector :math:`b` of the linear constraint :math:`A \cdot w \leq b`. risk_free_rate : float, default=0.0 Risk-free interest rate. The default value is `0.0`. max_tracking_error : float, optional Upper bound constraint on the tracking error. The tracking error is defined as the RMSE (root-mean-square error) of the portfolio returns compared to a target returns. If `max_tracking_error` is provided, the target returns `y` must be provided in the `fit` method. max_turnover : float, optional Upper bound constraint of the turnover. The turnover is defined as the absolute difference between the portfolio weights and the `previous_weights`. Note that another way to control for turnover is by using the `transaction_costs` parameter. max_mean_absolute_deviation : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Mean Absolute Deviation. max_first_lower_partial_moment : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the First Lower Partial Moment. max_variance : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Variance. max_standard_deviation : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Standard deviation. max_semi_variance : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Semi-Variance (Second Lower Partial Moment or Downside Variance). max_semi_deviation : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Semi-Standard deviation. max_worst_realization : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Worst Realization (Worst Return). max_cvar : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk or Expected Shortfall). max_evar : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the EVaR (Entropic Value at Risk). max_max_drawdown : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Maximum Drawdown. max_average_drawdown : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Average Drawdown. max_cdar : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the CDaR (Conditional Drawdown at Risk). max_edar : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the EDaR (Entropic Drawdown at Risk). max_ulcer_index : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Ulcer Index. max_gini_mean_difference : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Upper bound constraint on the Gini Mean Difference. min_return : float | array-like of shape (n_optimization), optional Lower bound constraint on the expected return. min_acceptable_return : float, optional The minimum acceptable return used to distinguish "downside" and "upside" returns for the computation of lower partial moments: * First Lower Partial Moment * Semi-Variance * Semi-Deviation The default (`None`) is to use the mean. cvar_beta : float, default=0.95 CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) confidence level. The default value is `0.95`. evar_beta : float, default=0 EVaR (Entropic Value at Risk) confidence level. The default value is `0.95`. cdar_beta : float, default=0.95 CDaR (Conditional Drawdown at Risk) confidence level. The default value is `0.95`. edar_beta : float, default=0.95 EDaR (Entropic Drawdown at Risk) confidence level. The default value is `0.95`. add_objective : Callable[[cp.Variable], cp.Expression], optional Add a custom objective to the existing objective expression. It is a function that must take as argument the weights `w` and returns a CVXPY expression. add_constraints : Callable[[cp.Variable], cp.Expression|list[cp.Expression]], optional Add a custom constraint or a list of constraints to the existing constraints. It is a function that must take as argument the weights `w` and returns a CVPXY expression or a list of CVPXY expressions. overwrite_expected_return : Callable[[cp.Variable], cp.Expression], optional Overwrite the expected return :math:`\mu \cdot w` with a custom expression. It is a function that must take as argument the weights `w` and returns a CVPXY expression. solver : str, default="CLARABEL" The solver to use. The default is "CLARABEL" which is written in Rust and has better numerical stability and performance than ECOS and SCS. Cvxpy will replace its default solver "ECOS" by "CLARABEL" in future releases. For more details about available solvers, check the CVXPY documentation: https://www.cvxpy.org/tutorial/advanced/index.html#choosing-a-solver solver_params : dict, optional Solver parameters. For example, `solver_params=dict(verbose=True)`. The default (`None`) is use `{"tol_gap_abs": 1e-9, "tol_gap_rel": 1e-9}` for the solver "CLARABEL" and the CVXPY default otherwise. For more details about solver arguments, check the CVXPY documentation: https://www.cvxpy.org/tutorial/advanced/index.html#setting-solver-options scale_objective : float, optional Scale each objective element by this value. It can be used to increase the optimization accuracies in specific cases. The default (`None`) is set depending on the problem. scale_constraints : float, optional Scale each constraint element by this value. It can be used to increase the optimization accuracies in specific cases. The default (`None`) is set depending on the problem. save_problem : bool, default=False If this is set to True, the CVXPY Problem is saved in `problem_`. The default is `False`. raise_on_failure : bool, default=True If this is set to True, an error is raised when the optimization fail otherwise it passes with a warning. portfolio_params : dict, optional Portfolio parameters passed to the portfolio evaluated by the `predict` and `score` methods. If not provided, the `name`, `transaction_costs`, `management_fees`, `previous_weights` and `risk_free_rate` are copied from the optimization model and passed to the portfolio. Attributes ---------- weights_ : ndarray of shape (n_assets,) or (n_optimizations, n_assets) Weights of the assets. problem_values_ : dict[str, float] | list[dict[str, float]] of size n_optimizations Expression values retrieved from the CVXPY problem. prior_estimator_ : BasePrior Fitted `prior_estimator`. mu_uncertainty_set_estimator_ : BaseMuUncertaintySet Fitted `mu_uncertainty_set_estimator` if provided. covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator_ : BaseCovarianceUncertaintySet Fitted `covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator` if provided. problem_: cvxpy.Problem CVXPY problem used for the optimization. Only when `save_problem` is set to `True`. n_features_in_ : int Number of assets seen during `fit`. feature_names_in_ : ndarray of shape (`n_features_in_`,) Names of assets seen during `fit`. Defined only when `X` has assets names that are all strings. """ def __init__( self, objective_function: ObjectiveFunction = ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK, risk_measure: RiskMeasure = RiskMeasure.VARIANCE, risk_aversion: float = 1.0, efficient_frontier_size: int | None = None, prior_estimator: BasePrior | None = None, min_weights: skt.MultiInput | None = 0.0, max_weights: skt.MultiInput | None = 1.0, budget: float | None = 1.0, min_budget: float | None = None, max_budget: float | None = None, max_short: float | None = None, max_long: float | None = None, transaction_costs: skt.MultiInput = 0.0, management_fees: skt.MultiInput = 0.0, previous_weights: skt.MultiInput | None = None, groups: skt.Groups | None = None, linear_constraints: skt.LinearConstraints | None = None, left_inequality: skt.Inequality | None = None, right_inequality: skt.Inequality | None = None, l1_coef: float = 0.0, l2_coef: float = 0.0, mu_uncertainty_set_estimator: BaseMuUncertaintySet | None = None, covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator: ( BaseCovarianceUncertaintySet | None ) = None, risk_free_rate: float = 0.0, min_return: skt.Target | None = None, max_tracking_error: skt.Target | None = None, max_turnover: skt.Target | None = None, max_mean_absolute_deviation: skt.Target | None = None, max_first_lower_partial_moment: skt.Target | None = None, max_variance: skt.Target | None = None, max_standard_deviation: skt.Target | None = None, max_semi_variance: skt.Target | None = None, max_semi_deviation: skt.Target | None = None, max_worst_realization: skt.Target | None = None, max_cvar: skt.Target | None = None, max_evar: skt.Target | None = None, max_max_drawdown: skt.Target | None = None, max_average_drawdown: skt.Target | None = None, max_cdar: skt.Target | None = None, max_edar: skt.Target | None = None, max_ulcer_index: skt.Target | None = None, max_gini_mean_difference: skt.Target | None = None, min_acceptable_return: skt.Target | None = None, cvar_beta: float = 0.95, evar_beta: float = 0.95, cdar_beta: float = 0.95, edar_beta: float = 0.95, solver: str = "CLARABEL", solver_params: dict | None = None, scale_objective: float | None = None, scale_constraints: float | None = None, save_problem: bool = False, raise_on_failure: bool = True, add_objective: skt.ExpressionFunction | None = None, add_constraints: skt.ExpressionFunction | None = None, overwrite_expected_return: skt.ExpressionFunction | None = None, portfolio_params: dict | None = None, ): super().__init__( risk_measure=risk_measure, prior_estimator=prior_estimator, mu_uncertainty_set_estimator=mu_uncertainty_set_estimator, covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator=covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator, min_weights=min_weights, max_weights=max_weights, budget=budget, min_budget=min_budget, max_budget=max_budget, max_short=max_short, max_long=max_long, transaction_costs=transaction_costs, management_fees=management_fees, previous_weights=previous_weights, groups=groups, linear_constraints=linear_constraints, left_inequality=left_inequality, right_inequality=right_inequality, l1_coef=l1_coef, l2_coef=l2_coef, risk_free_rate=risk_free_rate, min_acceptable_return=min_acceptable_return, cvar_beta=cvar_beta, evar_beta=evar_beta, cdar_beta=cdar_beta, edar_beta=edar_beta, solver=solver, solver_params=solver_params, scale_objective=scale_objective, scale_constraints=scale_constraints, save_problem=save_problem, raise_on_failure=raise_on_failure, add_objective=add_objective, add_constraints=add_constraints, overwrite_expected_return=overwrite_expected_return, portfolio_params=portfolio_params, ) self.objective_function = objective_function self.risk_aversion = risk_aversion self.efficient_frontier_size = efficient_frontier_size self.min_return = min_return self.max_tracking_error = max_tracking_error self.max_turnover = max_turnover self.max_mean_absolute_deviation = max_mean_absolute_deviation self.max_first_lower_partial_moment = max_first_lower_partial_moment self.max_variance = max_variance self.max_standard_deviation = max_standard_deviation self.max_semi_variance = max_semi_variance self.max_semi_deviation = max_semi_deviation self.max_worst_realization = max_worst_realization self.max_cvar = max_cvar self.max_evar = max_evar self.max_max_drawdown = max_max_drawdown self.max_average_drawdown = max_average_drawdown self.max_cdar = max_cdar self.max_edar = max_edar self.max_ulcer_index = max_ulcer_index self.max_gini_mean_difference = max_gini_mean_difference def _validation(self) -> None: """Validate the input parameters""" if not isinstance(self.risk_measure, RiskMeasure): raise TypeError("risk_measure must be of type `RiskMeasure`") if not isinstance(self.objective_function, ObjectiveFunction): raise TypeError("objective_function must be of type `ObjectiveFunction`") if self.efficient_frontier_size is not None: if self.efficient_frontier_size <= 1: raise ValueError( "`efficient_frontier_size` must be strictly greater than one" ) if self.objective_function != ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK: raise ValueError( "`efficient_frontier_size` must be used only with " "`objective_function = ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK`" )
[docs] def get_metadata_routing(self): # noinspection PyTypeChecker router = ( super() .get_metadata_routing() .add( mu_uncertainty_set_estimator=self.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator, method_mapping=skm.MethodMapping().add(caller="fit", callee="fit"), ) .add( covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator=self.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator, method_mapping=skm.MethodMapping().add(caller="fit", callee="fit"), ) ) return router
[docs] def fit( self, X: npt.ArrayLike, y: npt.ArrayLike | None = None, **fit_params ) -> "MeanRisk": """Fit the Mean-Risk Optimization estimator. Parameters ---------- X : array-like of shape (n_observations, n_assets) Price returns of the assets. y : array-like of shape (n_observations, n_targets), optional Price returns of factors or a target benchmark. The default is `None`. Returns ------- self : MeanRisk Fitted estimator. """ routed_params = skm.process_routing(self, "fit", **fit_params) self._check_feature_names(X, reset=True) # Validate self._validation() # Used to avoid adding multiple times similar constrains linked to identical # risk models self.prior_estimator_ = check_estimator( self.prior_estimator, default=EmpiricalPrior(), check_type=BasePrior, ) self.prior_estimator_.fit(X, y, **routed_params.prior_estimator.fit) prior_model = self.prior_estimator_.prior_model_ n_observations, n_assets = prior_model.returns.shape # set solvers params if self.solver == "CLARABEL": self._set_solver_params(default={"tol_gap_abs": 1e-9, "tol_gap_rel": 1e-9}) else: self._set_solver_params(default=None) # set scales if self.objective_function == ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_RATIO: self._set_scale_objective(default=1) self._set_scale_constraints(default=1) else: match self.risk_measure: case ( RiskMeasure.MEAN_ABSOLUTE_DEVIATION | RiskMeasure.FIRST_LOWER_PARTIAL_MOMENT | RiskMeasure.CVAR | RiskMeasure.WORST_REALIZATION | RiskMeasure.AVERAGE_DRAWDOWN | RiskMeasure.MAX_DRAWDOWN | RiskMeasure.CDAR | RiskMeasure.ULCER_INDEX ): self._set_scale_objective(default=1e-1) self._set_scale_constraints(default=1e2) case RiskMeasure.EVAR: self._set_scale_objective(default=1) self._set_scale_constraints(default=1e-2) case RiskMeasure.EDAR: self._set_scale_objective(default=1) self._set_scale_constraints(default=1e2) case _: self._set_scale_objective(default=1) self._set_scale_constraints(default=1) # Init weight variable and constraints w = cp.Variable(n_assets) constraints = [] if self.objective_function == ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_RATIO: factor = cp.Variable() else: factor = cp.Constant(1) # Mu uncertainty set if self.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator is None: mu_uncertainty_set = cp.Constant(0) else: # noinspection PyTypeChecker self.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator_ = sk.clone( self.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator ) self.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator_.fit( X, y, **routed_params.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator.fit ) mu_uncertainty_set = self._cvx_mu_uncertainty_set( mu_uncertainty_set=self.mu_uncertainty_set_estimator_.uncertainty_set_, w=w, ) # Expected returns expected_return = ( self._cvx_expected_return(prior_model=prior_model, w=w) - self._cvx_transaction_cost(prior_model=prior_model, w=w, factor=factor) - self._cvx_management_fee(prior_model=prior_model, w=w) - mu_uncertainty_set ) # Regularization regularization = self._cvx_regularization(w=w) # Tracking error if self.max_tracking_error is not None: if y is None: raise ValueError( "If `max_tracking_error` is provided, `y` must also be provided" ) if isinstance(y, pd.DataFrame): if y.shape[1] > 1: raise ValueError( "If `max_tracking_error` is provided, `y` must be a" " 1d-array, a single-column DataFrame or a Series" ) y = y[y.columns[0]] _, y = self._validate_data(X, y) tracking_error = self._tracking_error( prior_model=prior_model, w=w, y=y, factor=factor ) constraints += [ tracking_error * self._scale_constraints <= self.max_tracking_error * self._scale_constraints ] # Turnover if self.max_turnover is not None: turnover = self._turnover(n_assets=n_assets, w=w, factor=factor) constraints += [ turnover * self._scale_constraints <= self.max_turnover * factor * self._scale_constraints ] # weight constraints constraints += self._get_weight_constraints( n_assets=n_assets, w=w, factor=factor ) parameters_values = [] # Efficient frontier if self.efficient_frontier_size is not None: # We find the lower and upper bounds of the expected returns. # noinspection PyTypeChecker model: MeanRisk = sk.clone(self) # noinspection PyTypeChecker model.set_params( objective_function=ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK, efficient_frontier_size=None, portfolio_params=dict(annualized_factor=1), ) model.fit(X, y, **fit_params) min_return = model.problem_values_["expected_return"] # noinspection PyTypeChecker model.set_params(objective_function=ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_RETURN) model.fit(X, y, **fit_params) max_return = model.problem_values_["expected_return"] if max_return <= 0: raise ValueError( "Unable to compute the Efficient Frontier with only negative" " expected returns" ) targets = np.linspace( max(min_return, 1e-10) * 1.01, max_return, num=self.efficient_frontier_size, ) parameter = cp.Parameter(nonneg=False) constraints += [expected_return >= parameter * factor] parameters_values.append((parameter, targets)) # min_return constraint if self.min_return is not None: parameter = cp.Parameter(nonneg=False) constraints += [ expected_return * self._scale_constraints >= parameter * factor * self._scale_constraints ] parameters_values.append((parameter, self.min_return)) # risk and risk constraints risk = None for r_m in _NON_ANNUALIZED_RISK_MEASURES: risk_limit = getattr(self, f"max_{r_m.value}") if self.risk_measure == r_m or risk_limit is not None: # Add covariance uncertainty set if provided if ( r_m == RiskMeasure.VARIANCE and self.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator is not None ): risk_func = self._worst_case_variance_risk else: risk_func = getattr(self, f"_{r_m.value}_risk") args = {} for arg_name in args_names(risk_func): if arg_name == "prior_model": args[arg_name] = prior_model elif arg_name == "w": args[arg_name] = w elif arg_name == "factor": args[arg_name] = factor elif arg_name == "covariance_uncertainty_set": # noinspection PyTypeChecker self.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator_ = sk.clone( self.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator ) self.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator_.fit( X, y, **routed_params.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator.fit, ) args[arg_name] = ( self.covariance_uncertainty_set_estimator_.uncertainty_set_ ) else: args[arg_name] = getattr(self, arg_name) risk_i, constraints_i = risk_func(**args) constraints += constraints_i if risk_limit is not None: parameter = cp.Parameter(nonneg=True) constraints += [ risk_i * self._scale_constraints <= parameter * factor * self._scale_constraints ] parameters_values.append((parameter, risk_limit)) if self.risk_measure == r_m: risk = risk_i # custom objectives and constraints custom_objective = self._get_custom_objective(w=w) constraints += self._get_custom_constraints(w=w) match self.objective_function: case ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_RETURN: objective = cp.Maximize( expected_return * self._scale_objective - regularization * self._scale_objective + custom_objective * self._scale_objective ) case ObjectiveFunction.MINIMIZE_RISK: objective = cp.Minimize( risk * self._scale_objective + regularization * self._scale_objective + custom_objective * self._scale_objective ) case ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_UTILITY: objective = cp.Maximize( expected_return * self._scale_objective - self.risk_aversion * risk * self._scale_objective - regularization * self._scale_objective + custom_objective * self._scale_objective ) case ObjectiveFunction.MAXIMIZE_RATIO: if expected_return.is_affine(): # Charnes-Cooper's variable transformation for Fractional # Programming problem :Max(f1/f2) with f2 linear constraints += [ expected_return * self._scale_constraints - cp.Constant(self.risk_free_rate) * factor * self._scale_constraints == cp.Constant(1) * self._scale_constraints ] else: # Schaible's generalization of Charnes-Cooper's variable # transformation for Fractional Programming problem :Max(f1/f2) # with f1 concave instead of linear: Schaible,"Parameter-free # Convex Equivalent and Dual Programs of Fractional Programming # Problems". # The condition to work is f1 >= 0, so we need to raise an user # warning when it's not the case. # TODO: raise user warning when f1<0 constraints += [ expected_return * self._scale_constraints - cp.Constant(self.risk_free_rate) * factor * self._scale_constraints >= cp.Constant(1) * self._scale_constraints ] objective = cp.Minimize( risk * self._scale_objective + regularization * self._scale_objective + custom_objective * self._scale_objective ) case _: raise ValueError( f"objective_function {self.objective_function} is not valid" ) # problem problem = cp.Problem(objective, constraints) # results self._solve_problem( problem=problem, w=w, factor=factor, parameters_values=parameters_values, expressions={ "expected_return": expected_return, "risk": risk, "mu_uncertainty_set": mu_uncertainty_set, "regularization": regularization, "factor": factor, }, ) return self